Greece – neck and neck, say the polls…

Today Greece goes to the polls to vote on the EU’s bailout offer. The last ten or so polls have suggested a very close race – in fact the average of the last eight has been an exact tie. If that sounds familiar…

Decision time in Greece - No lead over Yes on headline referendum opinion polls. Data source: Wikipedia

But are the polls right? At Greece’s general election this year, the polls underestimated Syriza’s lead by a point or two – a pretty respectable performance. And while “shyhess” is always a threat, evidence of it is harder to come by.

One thing we do know about referenda is their tendency to produce a late swing towards the status quo. But that swing may already have happened – it’s hard to be say with such a short campaign. There are no true exit polls, but “on the day” polls will be published once voting has finished.

We’ll know the answer soon enough.





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