10 days on, a look back at the “Shy Tory” prediction

Once again, the ICM “spiral of silence” adjustment proved a very good pointer as to the direction of the error. At +2 in the final poll, it suggested a greater-than average shy Tory factor:

big2-sos1

At this point I should remind people that ICM (one of only two surviving pollsters from 1992) still deserve a huge amount of credit for their innovations in the 1990s, without which 2015 would have been significantly worse.

big2-sos2

The polling errors at the general election seemed to fit very well with those in mid-term elections:

Since 2013: The shy Tory factor returns

On the polls vs votes comparison, the non-linear relationship continues:

big2-sc

(Continued, please navigate using numbered tabs…)





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