Two weeks to go! Today I published an article with the LSE about the differences between phone & online polls and between new & established polls. On average, the more established polls have looked better for the Conservatives than Labour and newer polls the reverse. But there are also differences with the smaller parties…
We got four new GB polls, starting with Panelbase:
Panelbase: CON 31 (-2) LAB 34 (=) LIB 7 (-1) GRN 4 (=) UKIP 17 (+1) Fieldwork 21st-23rd The pattern continues… #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 23, 2015
Survation/Mirror showed a four-point Conservative lead:
Survation/Mirror: CON 33 (-1) LAB 29 (-4) LIB 10 (+3) UKIP 18 (+1) GRN 4 (+1) Dates 22nd-23rd N=1,205 Tabs http://t.co/ccH17rPRpc #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 23, 2015
As did ComRes/Mail:
ComRes/Mail: CON 36 (+1) LAB 32 (-2) LIN 8 (-4) UKIP 10 (-2) GRN 5 (+1) #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 23, 2015
YouGov/Sun had Labour two points ahead:
YouGov/Sun: CON 33 (=) LAB 35 (+1) LIB 8 (+1) UKIP 13 (-1) GRN 5 (=) Fieldwork 22nd-23rd #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 23, 2015
So four very different GB polls – the average of all of them is a small Tory lead, but it still looks like a very close race.
We also got a Survation poll of Thanet South, showing Nigel Farage comfortably ahead. This contrasts with the ComRes poll showing a close three-way battle, but since the methodologies are quite different, the contrast isn’t a huge surprise. The question is who is right…
Survation (Thanet South): Mackinlay/CON 30 Scobie/LAB 26 Timpson/LD 2 Farage/UKIP 39 Driver/GRN 2 Fieldwork April 22nd #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 23, 2015
Tomorrow we get Populus Online and YouGov/Sun GB polls and probably Lord Ashcroft’s latest constituency polling. We should also get at least one other poll…
