Daily polling roundup 15th April

Today’s sole GB-wide poll was YouGov for the Sun, which continues to show a very close race:

The YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni Welsh Westminster poll showed little change among the GB-wide parties – the big story there is Plaid’s 3pt rise. Roger Scully’s analysis is here.

ComRes polled 14 CON-LIB battleground seats in the South West for ITV news. They found a huge 13-point swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives in these 14 seats enough to turn them all blue on a uniform swing.

Just to put this into some sort of perspective, Monday’s ICM/Guardian poll had CON 39 LIB 8 – an 8.9% swing. Obviously the Lib Dems had far more votes to start with in the South West, so had more to lose. Even so, this poll was a big surprise and was met with a fair amount of skepticism. But the wording was comparable to Ashcroft, and arguably even more pro-incumbent:

Populus showed “in” and “out” to be virtually neck-and-neck, with a huge number of undecided voteres, in an EU membership poll for the FT:

From now on I’ll be splitting analysis/commentary between the main NCP handle and @MattSingh_. Be sure to follow for the latest!

And finally:

Tomorrow is the challengers debate – Survation and possibly other pollsters will have snap reaction polls, plus the daily YouGov/Sun poll. We may also get ComRes/Mail and Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard.





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