Daily polling roundup 9th April

What a day! Five new GB-wide polls, a Scottish poll and a Northern Ireland panel forecast. First up we had TNS, which was polled over the bank holiday weekend and showed Labour 3 points ahead. The five previous TNS polls this year have either shown the Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck, or Labour way out (at least 6 points) in front, so a three-point Labour lead is a bit of a novelty:

Panelbase, having shown the parties neck-and-neck in their first GB poll, showed a six-point Labour lead:

And Survation, will fieldwork entirely after Labour’s non-dom policy announcement, showed Labour gaining a couple of points and, interestingly, recorded higher net ratings for Ed Miliband than David Cameron:

ComRes/Mail/ITV, the only phone poll (so far) this week, found a one-point Tory lead. That’s quite a bit lower than the four-point lead in their previous poll, though it’s not clear whether that was a bit of a blip (and if so, how much):

And a few minutes later, YouGov/Sun also showed a 1-point Conservative lead, but the move was in the opposite direction:

So taking all of the polls together, four of the five have moved in Labour’s favour, one towards the Tories. But only two of today’s five national polls had fieldwork entirely after Labour’s non-dom policy announcement, and those two moved in opposite directions. I would suggest that the jury’s still out on the impact of the non-dom row, even though the polling on the issue itself has been very solidly in favour of Labour’s policy.

YouGov also polled for the Times in Scotland, reporting their biggest ever SNP lead, following (and quite possibly related to) the first debate in which they found Nicola Sturgeon to be the clear winner:

In Northern Ireland, LucidTalk’s panel forecast for the Belfast Telegraph showed the same seat numbers as the previous edition, but with increased confidence in the DUP retaking Belfast East from the APNI. You can read Bill White’s full analysis here.

Tomorrow might not be quite as dramatic, but then again, it might! We expect Populus in the morning, YouGov for the Sun and/or The Times later, and possibly the Evening Standard poll from Ipsos MORI, at their pre-election event in London.





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