Today we got the YouGov/Sun daily which again showed a close race, with the Tories a couple of points ahead on this occasion. This was today's only national poll – it's hard to imagine that until the last few years this would have been a busier-than-average polling day!
YouGov/Sun: CON 36 (+1) LAB 34 (-2) LIB 8 (+1) UKIP 13 (+1) GRN 4 (-1) Fieldwork 31st-1st #GE2015 #newsnight
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 1, 2015
We also got our now-weekly batch of marginals polling from Lord Ashcroft. This week he looked at the Lib Dem battleground, including Nick Clegg's battle to save his Sheffield Hallam seat. Please see my writeup for more.
Also at seat level, YouGov launched their Election Centre, an excellent new innovation that includes a nowcast and forecast using individual-level microdata from a 2-stage question (Ashcroft-style) to arrive at seat projections.
YouGov model uses 2-stage question (Ashcroft-style). Lib Dems saving about half their seats https://t.co/5q3amKw205 pic.twitter.com/FGbOadWFR0
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 1, 2015
Full YouGov forecast (nowcast): CON 297 (261) LAB 262 (285) LIB 30 (28) UKIP 4 (5) GRN 1 (1) SNP 35 (52) https://t.co/5q3amKw205 #GE2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) April 1, 2015
And finally, the best April fools day tweet award goes to:
With heavy heart I am standing down as Conservative PPC in Grantham & Stamford in favour of @GeneralBoles. He's simply more popular than me.
— Nick Boles (@NickBolesMP) April 1, 2015
Tomorrow is the ITV Debate, with as many as FIVE instant reaction polls being published afterwards, plus the normal YouGov/Sun at 10:30.
