You’d think there’s an election in a few weeks, given the amount of polling! We’ve had three Scottish Westminster polls in the last few weeks, from YouGov, Survation and ICM. All three pollsters found little change from their previous surverys, with the SNP maintaining a substantial lead:
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 12, 2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 19, 2015
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 23, 2015
So it would still appear that we’re heading for an SNP landslide (although really, landslide is much too weak a word). Will the likelihood of this type of outcome, or indeed Alex Salmond’s Queen’s speech intervention, have an impact on voters as election day nears?
One thing apparent in all three is the small gain for the Scots Tories. Only YouGov’s three-point move troubled the margin of error, but three in the same direction probably isn’t a coincidence. The YouGov move suggested it was at the SNP’s expense – if repeated uniformly across Scotland, it would mostly help Labour in some of their closer contests, but if it were concentrated in seats where the SNP and Conservatives are already first and second, it wouldn’t make much difference, because so few of those seats are close. For now, it’s far too soon to tell.
The Number Cruncher Politics aggregated model was completely unchanged, with figures of SNP 42 CON 18 LAB 26 LIB 4 UKIP 5 GRN 4. The Electionforecast weighted model shows SNP 46 CON 13 LAB 28 LIB 7 UKIP 3 GRN 3 – a one-point gain for the SNP, but no other changes.
I’ll post and comment on further Scottish polls as they come.