Daily polling roundup 31st March

Today we got two national polls, each showing the two main parties within a point of each other. YouGov showed Labour a point ahead, with the big two combined share up at 71%, the highest since 16th September:

TNS, for the second poll in a row, showed the Tories a point ahead, having tended to show large Labour leads until their previous poll:

Meanwhile in Scotland, a ComRes/ITV poll of Labour-held seats showed a 19.2% swing to the SNP. This broadly matches what Scotland-wide polls and Ashcroft’s seat polls have shown, but the question is how the swings are distributed – Labour seem to be doing worse where they had more votes to start with, and seem to be underperforming UNS.

We also got another London poll, this time YouGov For the Evening Standard, pretty much in line with most recent polling of the capital:

And further to yesterday’s announcement about the ITV debates, the detailed order was published:

The LSEĀ published a piece from Jack Blumenau and Simon Hix on how fragmentation varies across the UK (Wales has the most fragmented party system, the North East the least).

And finally, General Boles’s take on Lord Ashcroft’s retirement (announced today):

Tomorrow, in addition to the daily YouGov/Sun survey, get Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling at noon, and quite possibly some surprises too!





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