Daily polling roundup 30th March

So Parliament has been dissolved and the campaign is now officially underway. Today we got Great Britain polls from Populus, Lord Ashcroft and YouGov for tomorrow’s Sun. All three showed the Conservatives gaining three points, making Populus and YouGov both a tie and Ashcroft a two-point Tory lead. As I predicted yesterday, it appears that the weekend YouGov poll was an outlier. Taken together, there isn’t much to substantiate a “Milibounce”, if anything things have moved a bit towards the Conservatives in today’s polls compared with the same three last Monday:

We also got the YouGov/ITV News/Cardiff University Welsh Barometer poll, which showed very little change from the previous one, although Llafur Cymru will be happy to be back in the 40s. Normally we also get National Assembly voting intention from this poll, so keep an eye out for that. Roger Scully’s analysis of what we have so far is here.

ITV also commissioned a ComRes online poll of London VI. This is the first ComRes poll of the capital, so we don’t have any changes to compare. Once you take into account the house effects of YouGov, ICM and ComRes online in national polling, a 14-point Labour lead is very close to what you’d expect to see based on other London polls recently.

It was also announced that the lots drawn for ITV’s seven-way leader debate produced the following lineup (from left to right):

Bennett
Clegg
Farage
Miliband
Wood
Sturgeon
Cameron

And finally, the worst boyband ever:

Tomorrow we get the daily YouGov/Sun poll.





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