The battle to secure votes among the under 25s is hotting up, with three parties separated by just 7 points for the lead. The Number Cruncher Politics measure of youth voting intention, which is derived from YouGov polling data, shows (with changes from two weeks ago) Labour continuing to lead on 30 (-5) but with the Greens only six points behind on 24 (+3) and the Conservatives gaining slightly on 23 (+1). UKIP dropped back to 11 (-2) with the Lib Dems on 8 (+3). The averages for January to date show a similar picture.
As ever, these results should be interpreted with caution, as the sample size of 1,609 has the usual margin of error, and additionally the weighting bias adjustment is an estimate, though as explained in previous commentary, the bias has proven relatively stable thus far.
Nevertheless, they point to a continuation of previous trends. Interestingly, Labour’s vote share is now lower among young voters than among voters among all ages, which averaged 32.5% on a like-for-like basis. Also of note is the apparent recovery (albeit from a very low base) of the Lib Dems among a demographic they once dominated, taking them close to the levels they averaged in 2014. The changes in support for the Tories and UKIP were relatively small.