We’ve now had a full run of YouGov Westminster polls since the Scottish Labour leadership election, so we can properly take stock of what’s happened. The short answer is not very much. Compared with the last-but-one update in mid-December, the last estimate fully before Jim Murphy’s victory, Labour VI has risen by less than a point, with the SNP dropping about two points, giving a swing of a little over 1%.
The full figures and changes for the aggregated model are SNP 42 (-1) LAB 27 (+1) CON 17 (-1) LIB 5 (-1) UKIP 5 (+1) GRN 4 (+1). The electionforecast weighted measure is completely unchanged from last time, with figures of SNP 44 LAB 32 CON 11 LIB 6 GRN 4 UKIP 2.
Lord Ashcroft has confirmed that his Scottish constituency polling is currently in the field. We know, given the size of the swings, that they cannot be uniform, which makes this polling all the more interesting, particularly given the comments from John Curtice of University of Strathclyde that UNS estimates are likely to underestimate the scale of SNP seat gains.
We will be watching the constituency polls very closesly.