Very little change this week in Scotland, with no dedicated polls, and the SNP remaining far ahead of their unionist opponents. The weighted measure shows a one-point swing from Labour to Conservative, while the aggregated measure shows the Scottish Tories gaining two points, but at the expense of UKIP and the Lib Dems.
Full toplines are SNP 43 (=) LAB 26 (+1) CON 16 (+2) LIB 5 (-1) GRN 5 (+1) UKIP 4 (-1) for the aggregated measure and SNP 42 (=) LAB 32 (-1) CON 12 (+1) LIB 7 (=) GRN 4 (=) UKIP 2 (=) for the weighted measure. So both models show a Conservative uptick, but it’s far too soon to conclude anything from it.
I’m not aware of any Scotland-wide polls in the pipeline – Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling released this week was all south of the border, but next month should see him release some for Scottish seats. It will be very interesting to see where (geographically) the SNP’s surge is flowing from – as I and many other have said, a 20-point swing is not likely to be uniform.