Scotland update – new weighted model, same story

There is an updated version of this analysis here.

A few interesting developments in Scottish polling this week. The Number Cruncher Politics aggregation produced figures (and changes from last week) of SNP 43 (+1) LAB 25 (-1) CON 17 (=) LIB 6 (-1) UKIP 5 (+1) GRN 4 (=). This is another all-time high for the SNP at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems.


Survation also published a Scotland poll, with toplines and changes since its previous Scottish poll of SNP 46 (+8) LAB 24 (-9) CON 17 (=) LIB 6 (+1) UKIP 5 (=) GRN 2 (=). Survation last polld Westminster VI in July, at which point they showed the SNP considerably stronger relative to Labour than the YouGov’s tabs were suggesting – a 5 point lead instead of a 10 point deficit. As both polls have moved sharply in the SNP’s favour, they have converged, just as they did when yes supported surged prior to the referendum. It seems that the more support pollsters find for Scottish nationalism, the more they concur on its level.

We also have a new ‘nowcast’ from the UEA/LSE/Durham collaboration, with toplines of SNP 42 LAB 32 CON 12 LIB 7 GRN 4 UKIP 2. This model is based on GB polling and microdata, but for technical reasons, not dedicated Scottish polls. Due to methological changes, these figures aren’t directly comparable to the ones I’ve published previously. The main differences versus the aggregation are Labour being higher and UKIP and the Conservatives lower.

Thanks once again to Chris Hanretty of UEA for his invaluable insight into the electionforecast joint model.





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