One year until the General Election…

With exactly a year to go until the election, something caught my attention. Namely that whichever of the three plausible outcomes comes to pass, it will be a huge turnup for the books. Those outcomes, in a historical context:

A Conservative majority might well require either the Tories to increase their share of the vote while in government (which they haven’t done since 1924) or Labour to do worse than the 27.6% of the UK vote (28.3% in GB) that they got under Michael Foot, (which they haven’t done since 1918).

If Labour won a majority, they would do so directly from opposition (ie not via first being a minority government) after just one term out of power (which they have never done since being founded in 1900).

If neither party has a majority, we will have consecutive hung parliaments (which hasn’t happened since 1918).

Right now the polls are tight and prediction markets are pricing a hung parliament as the most likely outcome.

Data source: Wikipedia





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